2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Retirement Percentages

Here are my percentages for the likeliness of each named storm being retired in the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Alex- 20%

Bonnie- 1%

Colin- 0%

Danielle- 1%

Earl- 30%

Fiona-0%

Gaston- 0%

Hermine- 10%

Igor- 15%

Julia- 1%

Karl- 60%

Lisa- 1%

Matthew- 50%

Nicole- 2%

Otto- 1%

Paula- 5%

Richard- 30%

Shary- 0%

Tomas- 40%

Most Likely: Karl, Matthew, Tomas, Earl, Alex.

If Matthew is Retired, it would be only the second storm retired that never made it to Hurricane Strength, joining Allison of 2001.

Also, Tropical Storm Agatha of the Pacific Basin is very likely to be retired, I'd put it near 80%. They retired Alma in 2008 for less damages and deaths.

History of Hurricane Names

Ever Wonder which 'spot' in the Hurricane Season gets retired the most?

List I
• Ana
• Bob (1991) - Bill
• Claudette
• David (1979) - Danny
• Elena (1985) - Erika
• Frederic (1979) - Fabian (2003) - Fred
• Gloria (1985) - Grace
• Henri
• Isabel (2003) - Ida
• Juan (2003) - Joaquin
• Kate
• Larry
• Mindy
• Nicholas
• Odette
• Peter
• Rose
• Sam
• Teresa
• Victor
• Wanda

List II
• Allen (1980) - Andrew (1992) - Alex
• Bonnie
• Charley (2004) - Colin
• Danielle
• Earl
• Frances (2004) - Fiona
• Georges (1998) - Gaston
• Hermine
• Ivan (2004) - Igor
• Jeanne (2004) - Julia
• Karl
• Lisa
• Mitch (1998) - Matthew
• Nicole
• Otto
• Paula
• Richard
• Shary
• Tomas
• Virginie
• Walter

List III
• Arlene
• Bret
• Cindy
• Dennis (2005) - Don
• Emily
• Floyd (1999) - Franklin
• Gert
• Harvey
• Irene
• Jose
• Katrina (2005) - Katia
• Lenny (1999) - Lee
• Maria
• Nate
• Ophelia
• Philippe
• Rita (2005) - Rina
• Stan (2005) - Sean
• Tammy
• Vince
• Wilma (2005) - Whitney

List IV
• Alberto
• Beryl
• Chris
• Debby
• Ernesto
• Florence
• Gilbert (1988) - Gordon
• Helene
• Isaac
• Joan (1988) - Joyce
• Keith (2000) - Kirk
• Leslie
• Michael
• Nadine
• Oscar
• Patty
• Rafael
• Sandy
• Tony
• Valerie
• William

List V
• Alicia (1983) - Allison (2001) - Andrea
• Barry
• Chantal
• Dean (2007) - Dorian
• Erin
• Felix (2007) - Fernand
• Gabrielle
• Hugo (1989) - Humberto
• Iris (2001) - Ingrid
• Jerry
• Karen
• Luis (1995) - Lorenzo
• Marilyn (1995) - Michelle (2001) - Melissa
• Noel (2007) - Nestor
• Opal (1995) - Olga
• Pablo
• Roxanne (1995) - Rebekah
• Sebastien
• Tanya
• Van
• Wendy

List VI
• Arthur
• Bertha
• Cesar (1996) - Cristobal
• Diana (1990) - Dolly
• Edouard
• Fran (1996) - Fay
• Gustav (2008) - Gonzalo
• Hortense (1996) - Hanna
• Isidore (2002) - Ike (2008) - Isaias
• Josephine
• Klaus (1990) - Kyle
• Lili (2002) - Laura
• Marco
• Nana
• Omar
• Paloma (2008) - Paulette
• Rene
• Sally
• Teddy
• Vicky
• Wilfred

Historical Hurricanes to Compare to Bill

The first previous storm that comes to mind that Bill resembles is Fabian of 2003 (the last time List I was used). Fabian became a Category 4 that struck Bermuda as a Category 3. The effects in Bermuda was enough to have Fabian's name be retired and replaced this year with Fred.

When it comes to Nova Scotia, the hurricanes that come to mind are Juan, Noel and Kyle, as well as the 1991 Halloween Nor'easter, which was in fact a Category 1 Hurricane.

Here are the Nova Scotia Hurricanes since 1950:

1950: Hurricane Able, the first ever named Hurricane in History
1953: Hurricane Carol, not the same Carol that would be retired (that was 1954)
1959: An Unnamed Hurricane struck N.S.
1962: Hurricane Daisy
1963: Hurricane Ginny, which produced SNOW (!) in late October in Maine and N.S.
1971: Hurricane Beth
1975: Hurricane Blanche
1991: The Halloween Nor'easter (aka The Perfect Storm) as a Tropical Storm
1995: Tropical Storm Barry, Hurricane Luis (retired due to Leeward Islands Damage)
1996: Hurricane Hortense (retired due to Leeward Islands Damage)
2001: Tropical Storm Karen
2002: Hurricane Gustav (not the Gustav that was retired; that was in 2008)
2003: Hurricane Juan, the worst Hurricane in N.S. History (and second in Canadian History behind Hazel), the only Hurricane to be retired solely for Canadian Damage and Deaths
2007: Hurricane Noel struck as an Extratropical Storm, but combined with the damage in the Caribbean, Noel was retired
2008: Hurricane Kyle

Hurricane Bill becomes a Major Hurricane

And he has his eye set on Nova Scotia. At least that's where the projected track is taking it. The same Nova Scotia which was ravaged by Hurricane Juan in 2003, hit hard by the extratropical storm formerly known as Noel in 2007 and Hurricane Kyle in 2008. If Bill hits, it will be the first time ever that a storm, while still being a Tropical System, makes landfall in Canada in back to back years (Kyle and Presumably Bill).

Bill's effects will first be felt in Bermuda on Saturday. The waves and Tropical Storm Force winds will strike the East Coast of the U.S. over the weekend. And Canadian Landfall should be Monday or Tuesday of next week, as a Strong Cat. 1 or weak Cat. 2.

Here is the latest on Bill:

Location: 17.2N, 53.4W (555 miles east of the Leeward Islands)
Winds: 125 mph (Category 3)
Movement: WNW at 15 MPH
Pressure: 952 mb
Forecast: Bermuda overnight Friday to Saturday, Nova Scotia Monday Morning (which is the 17 year anniversary of Hurricane Andrew's landfall)

The Atlantic Basin is Super-Busy!

Back from my vacation, where nothing much happened (Felicia brought needed rain and not much wind to Hawaii), I will now talk about the 3 storms in the Atlantic. Yes, THREE.

First, the one that will impact the US first: Tropical Depression 4. It is forecast to become Tropical Storm Claudette tonight, and make landfall tomorrow morning as a weak Tropical Storm near the Pensacola region. As a tropical wave, it brought rain to the keys and Western Florida, but developed a circulation overnight.

Here is the most recent advisory on Tropical Depression 4.

Location: 28.1N, 84.1 W (125 miles SSE of Apalachicola, FL)
Winds: 35 MPH
Movement: NNW at 16 MPH
Pressure: 1007 mb
Watches and Warnings: Tropical Storm Warnings from the Alabama/Florida border to the Swanee River Area in Florida
Forecast: To make landfall as a weak Tropical Storm overnight tonight near Apalachicola, FL

There are two more storms out in the Atlantic, and one will be affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba over the next week. That storm is Ana.

Location: 14.6N, 54.7W (470 miles ESE of the Leeward Islands)
Winds: 40 MPH
Movement: W at 20 MPH
Pressure: 1005 mb
Watches and Warnings: Watches for the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico
Forecast: The Leewards should be struck on Monday, Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and continuing WNW as a storm or Depression, bringing winds and rain to Haiti, Dominican Republic, Cuba, before finally reaching the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday

The last storm to mention is Bill, and Bill is the strongest and has the best chance to become a Hurricane, and possibly a major Hurricane.

Location: 11.7N, 37.2W (975 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands)
Winds: 45 MPH
Movement: W at 13 MPH
Pressure: 1002 mb
Forecast: To become a Hurricane Tuesday Morning, a Major Hurricane by Friday, and poses a threat to the entire East Coast of the U.S., depending on where it goes. That won't be until Monday or Tuesday of next week.

This Day in Hurricane History: August 6

1980: Hurricane Allen impacts Cuba and Jamaica as a Category 5 Hurricane.
1989: Hurricane Dean makes landfall on Bermuda as a Category 2 Hurricane.

Felicia Update

A rare morning post, but here is the latest on Felicia:

Location: 15.5N, 131.2W, about 1480 Miles WSW of the Southern Tip of Baja California
Winds: 140 MPH (Category 4)
Movement: WNW at 10 MPH
Forecast: Still to make a Westward Turn and Weaken, and to affect the Hawaiian Islands as a Tropical Storm.