Thursday, November 25, 2010

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Retirement Percentages

Here are my percentages for the likeliness of each named storm being retired in the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Alex- 20%
Bonnie- 1%
Colin- 0%
Danielle- 1%
Earl- 30%
Fiona-0%
Gaston- 0%
Hermine- 10%
Igor- 15%
Julia- 1%
Karl- 60%
Lisa- 1%
Matthew- 50%
Nicole- 2%
Otto- 1%
Paula- 5%
Richard- 30%
Shary- 0%
Tomas- 40%

Most Likely: Karl, Matthew, Tomas, Earl, Alex.

If Matthew is Retired, it would be only the second storm retired that never made it to Hurricane Strength, joining Allison of 2001.

Also, Tropical Storm Agatha of the Pacific Basin is very likely to be retired, I'd put it near 80%. They retired Alma in 2008 for less damages and deaths.