Tuesday, August 18, 2009

History of Hurricane Names

Ever Wonder which 'spot' in the Hurricane Season gets retired the most?

List I
• Ana
• Bob (1991) - Bill
• Claudette
• David (1979) - Danny
• Elena (1985) - Erika
• Frederic (1979) - Fabian (2003) - Fred
• Gloria (1985) - Grace
• Henri
• Isabel (2003) - Ida
• Juan (2003) - Joaquin
• Kate
• Larry
• Mindy
• Nicholas
• Odette
• Peter
• Rose
• Sam
• Teresa
• Victor
• Wanda

List II
• Allen (1980) - Andrew (1992) - Alex
• Bonnie
• Charley (2004) - Colin
• Danielle
• Earl
• Frances (2004) - Fiona
• Georges (1998) - Gaston
• Hermine
• Ivan (2004) - Igor
• Jeanne (2004) - Julia
• Karl
• Lisa
• Mitch (1998) - Matthew
• Nicole
• Otto
• Paula
• Richard
• Shary
• Tomas
• Virginie
• Walter

List III
• Arlene
• Bret
• Cindy
• Dennis (2005) - Don
• Emily
• Floyd (1999) - Franklin
• Gert
• Harvey
• Irene
• Jose
• Katrina (2005) - Katia
• Lenny (1999) - Lee
• Maria
• Nate
• Ophelia
• Philippe
• Rita (2005) - Rina
• Stan (2005) - Sean
• Tammy
• Vince
• Wilma (2005) - Whitney

List IV
• Alberto
• Beryl
• Chris
• Debby
• Ernesto
• Florence
• Gilbert (1988) - Gordon
• Helene
• Isaac
• Joan (1988) - Joyce
• Keith (2000) - Kirk
• Leslie
• Michael
• Nadine
• Oscar
• Patty
• Rafael
• Sandy
• Tony
• Valerie
• William

List V
• Alicia (1983) - Allison (2001) - Andrea
• Barry
• Chantal
• Dean (2007) - Dorian
• Erin
• Felix (2007) - Fernand
• Gabrielle
• Hugo (1989) - Humberto
• Iris (2001) - Ingrid
• Jerry
• Karen
• Luis (1995) - Lorenzo
• Marilyn (1995) - Michelle (2001) - Melissa
• Noel (2007) - Nestor
• Opal (1995) - Olga
• Pablo
• Roxanne (1995) - Rebekah
• Sebastien
• Tanya
• Van
• Wendy

List VI
• Arthur
• Bertha
• Cesar (1996) - Cristobal
• Diana (1990) - Dolly
• Edouard
• Fran (1996) - Fay
• Gustav (2008) - Gonzalo
• Hortense (1996) - Hanna
• Isidore (2002) - Ike (2008) - Isaias
• Josephine
• Klaus (1990) - Kyle
• Lili (2002) - Laura
• Marco
• Nana
• Omar
• Paloma (2008) - Paulette
• Rene
• Sally
• Teddy
• Vicky
• Wilfred

Historical Hurricanes to Compare to Bill

The first previous storm that comes to mind that Bill resembles is Fabian of 2003 (the last time List I was used). Fabian became a Category 4 that struck Bermuda as a Category 3. The effects in Bermuda was enough to have Fabian's name be retired and replaced this year with Fred.

When it comes to Nova Scotia, the hurricanes that come to mind are Juan, Noel and Kyle, as well as the 1991 Halloween Nor'easter, which was in fact a Category 1 Hurricane.

Here are the Nova Scotia Hurricanes since 1950:

1950: Hurricane Able, the first ever named Hurricane in History
1953: Hurricane Carol, not the same Carol that would be retired (that was 1954)
1959: An Unnamed Hurricane struck N.S.
1962: Hurricane Daisy
1963: Hurricane Ginny, which produced SNOW (!) in late October in Maine and N.S.
1971: Hurricane Beth
1975: Hurricane Blanche
1991: The Halloween Nor'easter (aka The Perfect Storm) as a Tropical Storm
1995: Tropical Storm Barry, Hurricane Luis (retired due to Leeward Islands Damage)
1996: Hurricane Hortense (retired due to Leeward Islands Damage)
2001: Tropical Storm Karen
2002: Hurricane Gustav (not the Gustav that was retired; that was in 2008)
2003: Hurricane Juan, the worst Hurricane in N.S. History (and second in Canadian History behind Hazel), the only Hurricane to be retired solely for Canadian Damage and Deaths
2007: Hurricane Noel struck as an Extratropical Storm, but combined with the damage in the Caribbean, Noel was retired
2008: Hurricane Kyle

Hurricane Bill becomes a Major Hurricane

And he has his eye set on Nova Scotia. At least that's where the projected track is taking it. The same Nova Scotia which was ravaged by Hurricane Juan in 2003, hit hard by the extratropical storm formerly known as Noel in 2007 and Hurricane Kyle in 2008. If Bill hits, it will be the first time ever that a storm, while still being a Tropical System, makes landfall in Canada in back to back years (Kyle and Presumably Bill).

Bill's effects will first be felt in Bermuda on Saturday. The waves and Tropical Storm Force winds will strike the East Coast of the U.S. over the weekend. And Canadian Landfall should be Monday or Tuesday of next week, as a Strong Cat. 1 or weak Cat. 2.

Here is the latest on Bill:

Location: 17.2N, 53.4W (555 miles east of the Leeward Islands)
Winds: 125 mph (Category 3)
Movement: WNW at 15 MPH
Pressure: 952 mb
Forecast: Bermuda overnight Friday to Saturday, Nova Scotia Monday Morning (which is the 17 year anniversary of Hurricane Andrew's landfall)

Sunday, August 16, 2009

The Atlantic Basin is Super-Busy!

Back from my vacation, where nothing much happened (Felicia brought needed rain and not much wind to Hawaii), I will now talk about the 3 storms in the Atlantic. Yes, THREE.

First, the one that will impact the US first: Tropical Depression 4. It is forecast to become Tropical Storm Claudette tonight, and make landfall tomorrow morning as a weak Tropical Storm near the Pensacola region. As a tropical wave, it brought rain to the keys and Western Florida, but developed a circulation overnight.

Here is the most recent advisory on Tropical Depression 4.

Location: 28.1N, 84.1 W (125 miles SSE of Apalachicola, FL)
Winds: 35 MPH
Movement: NNW at 16 MPH
Pressure: 1007 mb
Watches and Warnings: Tropical Storm Warnings from the Alabama/Florida border to the Swanee River Area in Florida
Forecast: To make landfall as a weak Tropical Storm overnight tonight near Apalachicola, FL

There are two more storms out in the Atlantic, and one will be affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba over the next week. That storm is Ana.

Location: 14.6N, 54.7W (470 miles ESE of the Leeward Islands)
Winds: 40 MPH
Movement: W at 20 MPH
Pressure: 1005 mb
Watches and Warnings: Watches for the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico
Forecast: The Leewards should be struck on Monday, Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and continuing WNW as a storm or Depression, bringing winds and rain to Haiti, Dominican Republic, Cuba, before finally reaching the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday

The last storm to mention is Bill, and Bill is the strongest and has the best chance to become a Hurricane, and possibly a major Hurricane.

Location: 11.7N, 37.2W (975 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands)
Winds: 45 MPH
Movement: W at 13 MPH
Pressure: 1002 mb
Forecast: To become a Hurricane Tuesday Morning, a Major Hurricane by Friday, and poses a threat to the entire East Coast of the U.S., depending on where it goes. That won't be until Monday or Tuesday of next week.

Thursday, August 6, 2009

This Day in Hurricane History: August 6

1980: Hurricane Allen impacts Cuba and Jamaica as a Category 5 Hurricane.
1989: Hurricane Dean makes landfall on Bermuda as a Category 2 Hurricane.

Felicia Update

A rare morning post, but here is the latest on Felicia:

Location: 15.5N, 131.2W, about 1480 Miles WSW of the Southern Tip of Baja California
Winds: 140 MPH (Category 4)
Movement: WNW at 10 MPH
Forecast: Still to make a Westward Turn and Weaken, and to affect the Hawaiian Islands as a Tropical Storm.

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

The History of Hurricane Iniki

Since I have been posting about Felicia's chances of striking the Hawaiian Islands, I will devote one blog post towards the history of Hawaii's fiercest Hurricane, Iniki.

Iniki was a rare Powerful Central Pacific Hurricane, and it was also the second costliest Hurricane in the Pacific Ocean (not counting Typhoons) and, oddly enough, the most intense landfalling Eastern/Central Pacific Hurricane in history. (which includes a Landfalling Category 5, 2002's Kenna)

Iniki was originally tracked to stay to the south of Hawaii, but it made a sudden turn to the North and struck the Island of Kaua'i on September 11, 1992. It was 2 weeks after Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5, struck Miami, Florida, and it was the first time in recorded history that TWO Hurricanes struck the U.S. while being a Major Hurricane, That has since happened more than twice on 2 occasions: 2004 with Charley, Ivan and Jeanne, and again in 2005 with Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma. Of those 7, only Charley wasn't a Category 3 at landfall. Iniki, like Charley, was a Category 4 at landfall.

The only other Hurricane to make Landfall on Hawaii was Dot in 1959 (shortly after Hawaii became a U.S. State). Dot was a Category 4, but made landfall as a Category 1.

Depressions and Storms have brushed by the islands, but only 2 hurricanes had LANDFALL. If Felicia makes landfall on the Big Island as a Hurricane (not likely, but possible), then we'll have #3.

2009's First Major Hurricane

Hurricane Felicia is now a strong Category 3 Hurricane, packing winds of 125 MPH, and has a decent chance to strike Hawaii, but if or when it does, it would be either a weak hurricane or a strong Tropical Storm.

Here are the latest numbers on Felicia: as of the 5pm Advisory

Location: 14.5N, 129.7W, about 1420 Miles WSW of the Southern Tip of Baja California
Winds: 125 MPH
Movement: NW at 12 MPH
Forecast: Slowly curve more to the west, towards the Hawaiian Islands, with impacts on Hawaii by Monday Afternoon

Enrique is still churning to the east of Felicia, and will soon be absorbed by the much stronger storm.

Location: 18.4N, 123.1W, about 910 Miles WSW of the Southern Tip of Baja California
Winds: 50 MPH
Movement: NW at 12 MPH
Forecast: Mirroring the Movement of Felicia, perhaps to be absorbed by Felicia.

The threat of a storm forming from the waves off of Africa have vanished, as the main wave has lost all convection, though it still has a chance to form a Low Pressure center. Other than that, a quiet Atlantic.

The main concern is still Felicia, and remember: No Hurricane has made a direct hit onto a Hawaiian Island since 1992's Hurricane Iniki.

This Day in Hurricane History: August 5

1980: Hurricane Allen becomes a Category 5 Hurricane, the second in as many years.
1990: Tropical Storm Diana makes its first landfall, on the Yucatan Peninsula
1993: TD #3 becomes Tropical Storm Bret
2002: TD #3 (Cristobal) forms east of South Carolina
2008: Tropical Storm Edouard makes landfall in Texas with 65 MPH winds

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

Potential Trouble for Hawaii

This may not be good.

This morning I posted the update on TD #8-E. Well, it's 7 hours later, and TD #8 is now Hurricane Felicia. And the storm forecast, though very broad, has it taking dead aim at the Big Island of Hawaii in 6-7 days, packing winds at that point around 90-100 MPH.

Let's hope that this forecast is wrong; or else we could be seeing Hawaii's worst hurricane since Iniki in 1992.

The Current Update on Felicia:

Hurricane Felicia
Location: 12.4N, 126.6W, about 1315 miles SSW of the tip of Baja California
Winds: 80 MPH
Movement: W at 14 mph
Forecast: NW then WNW at 14 MPH, coming close to the Island of Hawaii within 7 days. May become a Category 3 by this time tomorrow.

Just to the Northeast of Felicia is Tropical Storm Enrique.

Tropical Storm Enrique
Location: 15.0N, 118.4W
Winds: 60 MPH
Movement: WNW at 16 mph
Forecast: Continuing WNW movement, with a slight turn to the southwest and eventually becoming overwhelmed by Felicia. No threat to land, unless it becomes part of Felicia. Probably will not achieve Hurricane status.

Also, in the Atlantic Ocean, a disturbance is southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, around the area where Tropical Storm Bret formed on this day 16 years ago. Another small disturbance is bringing thundershowers to the southern Cape Verde Islands. Both of these waves have a slight chance to become Depressions.

Action in the Atlantic?

A wave near the Cape Verde islands has a chance to become TD #2 within the next 48 hours, and perhaps give us our first named storm of 2009.

Out in the Pacific, two storms within close proximity of each other are churning in the open waters. The storm further west is TD #8-E, and it has the better chance of the two to become a hurricane. If it does strengthen into a Tropical Storm, it would be named Felicia.

To the east of TD #8-E, we have Tropical Storm Enrique. Packing 40 MPH winds, it isn't expected to strengthen due to the block being thrown by TD #8-E.

This Day in Hurricane History: August 4

1990: TD #5 (Diana) Forms east of Nicaragua.
1993: TD #3 (Bret) forms over the Atlantic Ocean.
2000: TD #3 strengthens into Tropical Storm Alberto.
2002: TD#2 (Bertha) forms in the Gulf of Mexico.
2004: Hurricane Alex becomes a Major Hurricane, becoming the second Category 3 hurricane to form north of 38N latitude. (Hurricane Ellen of 1973 is the only other one)
2005: TD #9 (Irene) forms near the Cape Verde Islands.

Monday, August 3, 2009

Goodbye Lana, Hello Enrique?

Well Tropical Depression Lana is no more, as it has degenerated into a Remnant Low southwest of Hawaii. However, a new storm has formed in the Eastern Pacific, and was announced only an hour ago... Tropical Depression Seven!

TD #7
Location: 13.0N, 112.6W (1640 miles SSW of the Southern Tip of Baja California, Mexico)
Winds: 35 MPH
Movement: West at 14 MPH
Forecast: WNW at 10-15 MPH, Strengthening to Strong TS, maybe Cat. 1 Hurricane over the next 5 days. No threat to land.

If TD #7 strengthens to a Tropical Storm, it will get the name Enrique.

Atlantic is still quiet, and that's good news for the Southeast United States and the Caribbean.

This Day in Hurricane History: August 3

1980: Hurricane Allen becomes a Major Hurricane.
2000: Tropical Depression #3 (Alberto) forms near the Cape Verde Islands.
2004: Tropical Storm Alex becomes a Hurricane and the center reaches the closest it will come to the United States, off the Outer banks of North Carolina.
2005: TD #8 becomes Tropical Storm Harvey.
2008: TD #5 forms and strengthens into Tropical Storm Edouard.

Sunday, August 2, 2009

This Day in Hurricane History: August 2

1980: TD #2 becomes Tropical Storm Allen.
1995: Hurricane Erin makes her second Florida landfall, this time on the Peninsula.
2001: Tropical Storm Barry forms in the Gulf of Mexico
2005: TD #8 (Harvey) forms.

Saturday, August 1, 2009

The Latest on Lana

Tropical Storm Lana's current information:

as of 11 AM Hawaiian Standard Time

Location: 14.5N, 153.4W, about 555 Miles SSE of Honolulu, HI, moving West at 17 MPH
Max Sustained Winds: 50 MPH
Pressure: 1008 mB
Forecast: Continue Westward Track, gradually weaken before crossing the International Date Line.

This Day in Hurricane History: August 1

August 1, 1980: Tropical Depression Two forms near the Cape Verde Islands. This storm would eventually become Hurricane Allen, one of only 2 Atlantic Hurricanes to have sustained winds at 190 MPH

August 1, 1989: Hurricane Chantal makes landfall as a Category 1 in Texas. Tropical Storm Dean forms in the Atlantic Ocean.

August 1, 2004: Tropical Storm Alex forms just off the Georgia Coast

August 2, 2006: Tropical Storm Chris forms east of the Leeward Islands